Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): Out & About in our World This Week

Florida governor hopeful and current Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL). Photo: Andres LaBrada Photographer / Flickr / CC BY 2.0.

History tells us that fewer than one out of three registered Democrats are likely to cast ballots in Florida’s Aug. 23 Democratic primary for governor, with early voting already underway in many Florida counties. The five primaries before 2018 saw an average of only about 21% of the electorate voting. This August, it’s hard to tell where turnout will land. But that isn’t stopping rivals Nikki Fried and Charlie Crist from flooding would-be voters with phone calls, texts, door-to-door canvassers and mailers in the homestretch of a race that just got a whole lot tighter. The push into the campaign’s final days comes as two polls suggest a considerable shift in momentum toward the state’s agricultural commissioner. First, a Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by the Fried campaign showed her gaining on Crist — trailing by seven percentage points, but with 23% of Democratic primary voters still undecided. Then a University of North Florida poll released Tuesday morning indicated Fried had surpassed Christ — giving her a 47% to 43% lead over the former governor. The poll, with a margin of error of 4.5%, indicated a 12-point swing to Fried since February, the last time the university surveyed the race. Polling has been scant in the race, with most showing at least 26% of voters undecided and Crist posting an average lead of 16.7 points in four polls conducted this year by three different organizations, according to RealClear Politics.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

But Tuesday’s UNF poll suggests Fried could pull off a primary surprise and make next week's primary a far closer contest to win the Democratic nomination for governor. Crist has cast himself as the Democrat who can beat incumbent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in November.

“Because you want to win,” Crist said, when asked why Democrats should choose him over Fried. “I’ve got the experience, I’ve done the job, I’ve raised the money, I’ve got the endorsement of every major newspaper in the state…I want to win. I’m running for governor of Florida to beat Ron DeSantis.”

DeSantis, meanwhile, doesn’t have to face a primary opponent and was sitting on $125 million in campaign cash heading into this month. Crist had just $6 million, and Fried only $3 million. The UNF poll found that DeSantis with a 50% to 43% lead over Fried and a 50% to 42% lead over Crist. Market Pulse: Crist’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination for Florida governor dipped 9¢ to close at 85¢ yesterday and suggest that Fried might make next Tuesday’s primary pretty interesting. The crowd hasn’t seen this primary as all that interesting, backing Crist over the last three months as a strong favorite as they priced his contract at 79¢ or higher the entirety of this time. Fried’s 90-day high is just 22¢ achieved on July 31. Either winner will have to contend with an incumbent in a very strong position at the moment. The crowd predicts DeSantis at 92¢ to win November’s contest and hasn’t dropped his contract below the 88¢ mark for the last three months. Crist holds a 5¢ lead over Fried — 8¢ to 3¢ — for second place coming into trading today.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination?

Which party will win the US Senate election in Florida in 2022?

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) speaking at the 2016 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Keeping the Florida theme and diving deeper into that University of North Florida poll released on Tuesday, we find Democratic candidate for US Senate, Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), leading incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in a tight race. Demings, the former chief of police in Orlando and current congresswoman, is a virtual shoe-in for the Democratic nomination as she garnered 80% support in the poll. With the Republican primary canceled and Rubio moving on, all eyes have already shifted toward the November showdown. Demings held 48% support of surveyed registered voters who said they would vote in the midterms, while Rubio had 44% and 7% said they’d choose someone else. Broken down by party, 89% of Republican voters supported Rubio, in addition to 36% of voters who either had no party affiliation or whose political affiliation was termed “other.” The poll found that Demings was supported by 94% of Democratic voters and 46% of voters with no party affiliation.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?

Florida’s Senate race has been considered one of the more competitive this November and is rated as “lean Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“This is Florida, and we’ve always said it would be a tight race. This is a choice between Marco’s proven record of results and Val Demings, who votes 100% of the time for [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s failed agenda. Given that choice, we are more than confident that we will win,” said Elizabeth Gregory, spokeswoman for the Rubio campaign, in reaction to the poll.

 

Democrats campaign on string of victories in Congress Democrats are rolling out a series of campaign ads touting a recent string of legislative victories in the hope that a productive session in Congress will translate to success in the November midterm elections. Read the full story here. Biden Signs Massive Democratic Spending Bill into Law Despite its name, the bill’s impact on inflation is ‘expected to be statistically indistinguishable from ... READ MORE Akshat Rathi will be in Seattle on Aug 18, then in San Francisco and Boston over the following two weeks. If you'd like to meet him for drinks, please let him know here.                                                              *** By Akshat Rathi and Jennifer A Dlouhy It was the middle of July — with temperatures surging through one of the hottest summers in US history, half of the country in drought — and the Senate’s all-important member, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, had slammed the brakes on legislation to combat global warming. Again. That’s when billionaire philanthropist and clean-energy investor Bill Gates got on the phone with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose job it was to hold together the Democrats’ no-vote-to-spare majority. One of the world’s richest men felt he had to give one of the nation’s most powerful lawmakers a little pep talk. “[Schumer] said to me on one call that he’d shown infinite patience,” Gates recounted in an interview last week, describing for the first time his personal effort to keep climate legislation alive. “You’re right,” Gates told Schumer. “And all you need to do is show infinite plus one patience.” Gates was banking on more than just his trademark optimism about addressing climate change and other seemingly intractable problems that have been his focus since stepping down as Microsoft’s chief executive two decades ago. As he revealed to Bloomberg Green, he has quietly lobbied Manchin and other senators, starting before President Joe Biden had won the White House, in anticipation of a rare moment in which heavy federal spending might be secured for the clean-energy transition. This story is drawn from an exclusive interview with Bill Gates that will be featured in the first episode of Zero. Sign up below to receive the debut show when it’s released. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple Those discussions gave him reason to believe the senator from West Virginia would come through for the climate — and he was willing to continue pressing the case himself until the very end. “The last month people felt like, OK, we tried, we're done, it failed,” Gates said. “I believed it was a unique opportunity.” So he tapped into a relationship with Manchin that he’d cultivated for at least three years. “We were able to talk even at a time when he felt people weren’t listening.” Few had any idea at this time that talks remained open at all. In addition to Gates, an ad hoc group of quiet Manchin influencers sprang into action just when climate legislation seemed out of reach. Schumer’s office credited the bill's passage to persistence and otherwise declined to comment. Collin O’Mara, chief executive officer of the National Wildlife Federation, recruited economists to assuage Manchin’s concerns — including representatives from the University of Chicago and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Senator Chris Coons of Delaware brought in a heavyweight: former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who has spent decades advising Democrats.  The economists were able to “send this signal that [the bill’s] going to help with the deficit,” O’Mara said. “It’s going to be slightly deflationary and it’s going to spur growth and investment in all these areas.” Through this subtle alchemy, clean-energy investments could be reframed for Manchin as a hedge against future spikes in oil and gas prices and a way to potentially export more energy to Europe. That additional patience and pushing helped send a history-making climate bill through Congress. The Inflation Reduction Act, sponsored by Manchin and Schumer, includes $374 billion in new spending to speed up clean-energy deployment, incentivize consumer purchases of electric cars, and boost other green priorities (alongside expanded federal mandates for oil and gas development). Biden hands his pen to Manchin after signing the Inflation Reduction Act at the White House on Aug. 16. Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg Now Biden has signed it into law. Doing so secures a landmark victory for Democrats, who acted in unison without a single Republican vote, and delivers on the climate agenda that formed a part of the president’s campaign promises. It’s by far the biggest financial commitment the US government has ever made to fight climate change. The emissions reductions that will result from this law will be roughly the same as eliminating the annual planet-warming pollution of France and Germany combined, or about 2.5% of the total global greenhouse gas output, according to researchers who specialize in climate modeling. It might be just about enough to revive the virtually left-for-dead goal of limiting warming to 1.5° Celsius, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement. But this turning point almost didn’t happen. Perhaps more than any previous moment in the effort to reverse rising temperatures, this one hinged on a handful of personalities and interpersonal relationships. Click here to read the full story of how quiet back-channeling by Bill Gates and others helped shape the climate policies in the new law. Photo Illustration: 731; Getty Images (3) Like getting the Green Daily? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to breaking news on climate and energy, data-driven reporting and graphics and Bloomberg Green magazine. Here's what else you need to know in Green The bureaucratic slog begins! Federal agencies must write a raft of regulations to implement the US new climate law. Hundreds of billions of dollars hang in the balance for everything from sustainable aviation fuel projects and solar tax credits to the first-ever fees on methane leaks. Read this story to learn more about the monumental task that will involve nearly every federal agency. Don’t call it a climate bill Why is the biggest climate legislation in American history packaged as something else? This story looks at why successful policies for reducing emissions tend to avoid the word “climate.” Read the fine print  $7,500 The tax credit for an electric vehicle purchase if the car meets a new rule requiring North American assembly. The majority of current models would not qualify. Now it's climate law “This bill is the biggest step forward on climate, ever.” President Joe Biden on signing the Inflation Reduction Act